It seems like the new pasttime in America is making predictions. How successful something will be, how many units will be sold, who will win the Stanley Cup, etc... It seems like there is more interest in the hype of predictions and of what possibly could be than there is in the actual event, product, or sporting event. I think the iPhone launch next week is no different. So to throw my hat in the prediction ring I will actually cite some real data. If you look on ebay, someone is already offering to wait in line for you so that you can get an iPhone. They are only charging between $1k and $2k. If you look at nowinstock.net, a site that lists hard to get items and aggregates the information on where you can find them in stock, you will see that they already list the iPhone (along with thw wii, the new harry potter book, and other somewhat less popular items and you'll see that ebay already has the iPhone in stock (yeah right). According to Yahoo Buzz, iPhone is the 16th most popular search term right now. I also like to look at Google Trends every now and then to see popular search terms are and to compare them to others. Just playing around with it, it looks like thus far this year the iPhone is more popular then the Blackjack (which has been selling for a while now). But the iPhone has also had more press releases and press coverage. But the iPhone does not seem to be as popular a search term as the Nintendo Wii. What does this tell me? Not much other than the iPhone will probably do very well but will not have the same epic shortages that we still see with the Nintendo Wii. So overall my prediction is that Apple will quickly sell out after the iPhone goes on sale roughly a week from now. But I also think they will be able to fill the demand so that in a month or two you will be able to go into an Apple or Cingular store and buy one without having to wait in line or camp out overnight. I think the first few people that get iPhones will probably make a decent profit on eBay. But then the flood of iPhones will quickly drive down profit margins. But if you can't wait to get one and have to get it a week from now you will either need to line up outside one of the stores or be willing to spend some extra money to get it on ebay. It will not be easy to get for the first month or so. It is too bad that people have to deal with AT&T to get their iPhone up and running on the network. I think that is going to be the part of the process that will frustrate people.
Posted by troutm8 at June 22, 2007 05:05 PM